February 12, 2025
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At the end of last year, the IEA released a report entitled: ‘Coal 2024: Analysis and Forecast to 2027’. The following text is a summary of some of the key findings and statistics in this report, with commentary for specifically how this relates to the Repower Initiative’s goals of decarbonising coal powered-stations by Repowering: reusing the existing infrastructure and replacing the coal boiler with a low-carbon emissions source of heat.
Coal, a solid, combustible fossil sedimentary rock, is formed from buried vegetation which has been compressed by strong pressures and high temperatures over millions of years. It is the most carbon-intensive of the fossil fuels, and the largest source of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, contributing to 40% of energy-related emissions (15.5 Gt in 2023). Coal-fired power plants consume two-thirds of the coal produced, which is burned to produce steam to turn turbine-generators. Coal combustion produces emissions such as particulates, sulphur, nitrogen oxides and other air pollutants, which negatively impact human health and the environment. 99.95% of coal consumed today is unabated – there is no attempt to capture any of the CO2 before it goes into our atmosphere, where as a greenhouse gas (GHG) it steadily heats the Earth and drives our ongoing climate crisis. Greenhouse gas emissions must be rapidly halted, despite the complexity of global coal use.
In the past three decades, global coal consumption has doubled, with two-thirds used for the global electricity sector. Following high gas prices in the aftermath of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and a rebound of global coal use after the resolution of the pandemic, 2024 was a year of record global coal production, coal consumption, coal trade and coal-fired power generation. The report states that in 2024, global coal demand reached an all-time high of more than 9 billion tonnes (Bt) burned, and electricity generation from coal reached an all-time high of 10,700 terawatt-hours (TWh). Similarly, international trade of coal by volume reached a record 1.55 Bt in 2024.
There are certainly positive signs globally. Europe’s coal demand declined significantly in 2023, especially in energy generation (down 42 Mt or 12%). The availability of cheap natural gas in the United States and Canada has also helped reduce demand, with coal demand declining by 5% in 2024 (although natural gas is still a GHG emitter). The last coal power plant in the UK was closed in September 2024, after a 142-year era of continuous coal burning. This was a powerful moment for a country that powered the Industrial Revolution with coal. In 2025, the coal consumed by the EU and the US will be half that of India. By 2027, coal’s share of the global electricity mix is expected to drop to just over 31%, which is the lowest level recorded by the IEA.
Renewable power capacity has also expanded drastically around the world, with rapid deployments of solar, wind, and renewable sources of energy (up 426 TWh in 2023) – we are heading in the right direction. The report anticipates that the global coal demand and production is set to plateau in the next three years, with CO2 emissions not expected to decline in that period, due to the slow progress of deploying carbon capture, utilisation and storage technologies (CCUS). Declines in the US and EU are expected to be offset, by increasing coal demand in some emerging economies, such as India, Indonesia and Viet Nam, where population and economic growth, and demand from the power sector and industry are increasing the demand for electricity generation.
China, India and Indonesia are the world’s three largest producers and consumers of coal.
China increased coal demand at the regional level by 1% in 2024, to reach 4.9 Bt. For the past 25 years, China has consumed 30% more coal than the rest of the world put together, with a third of all coal consumed worldwide burned in Chinese power plants. China accounted for 56% of global demand in 2023. The country’s electricity sector is the main driver of global coal markers, and they will continue to define global trends with their political decisions. In 2024, China had an estimated usage of 4,939 Mt of coal, with the power sector accounting for 63% of its coal demand. It is expected that their coal use will decline by 63 Mt over the next 3 years.
China has made commitments to CO2 emissions peaking before 2030, and has diversified its power sector, with a huge expansion of solar PV and wind capacity, and advancement of nuclear power plant construction. Hydropower has also seen a resurgence after several years of underperformance. While these factors may help limit China’s coal consumption, there are uncertainties in the analyses, largely around weather fluctuations. Coal demand in China by 2027 could be up to 140 Mt higher or lower than forecast, due to weather-related variability in renewable generation.
India is the second-largest global consumer of coal, and largest contributor to global coal production growth. In 2024, India saw its demand growth increase by 5% to 1.3 Bt, which is a level only China has previously reached. India’s economic growth focuses on securing supply for domestic consumers, reducing reliance on imports. It has committed to achieving 500 GW of renewable generation capacity by 2030, with coal decreasing from a 74% of the current energy mix in 2024, to 66% by 2027. Coal is anticipated to play a significant role in India’s electricity system for years to come. India is incentivising production from public companies, such as Coal India Limited (the largest government-owned coal producer in the world), as well as captive and commercial producers. Nuclear power and gas-fired generation are projected to see moderate growth. Electricity generation from renewable sources is expected to increase by 16% annually over the next three years, although coal consumption for electricity generation is also expected to increase 1.7% annually over the same period.
Indonesia is expected to surpass 800 Mt of coal consumption for the first time in history. The economic growth of the country is being driven by an increased seaborne demand for thermal coal from international markets and rising domestic demand. Coal is used in the production of nickel, which is crucial to battery manufacturing. Indonesia is boosting its production of the mineral and produced half of the world’s output in 2023 (1.9 Mt). Indonesia has signalled that it will phase out coal power generation by 2040, which sends a strong signal for long-term developments.
The speed at which renewables are being installed globally is commendable, yet there is still a need for additional energy providence beyond this capacity. Increasingly unpredictable weather has an impact on electricity and heat demand and can also vary the efficiency with which solar and wind power can be generated. Severe droughts in China in 2023 affected the availability of hydropower. Heatwaves increase the electrical demand for cooling in residential consumption. The report anticipates that the surge in renewable energy deployment will reduce the average utilisation rate of coal-fired power plants overall, but that coal will still be required to cover the remainder of what is not covered by renewables. Coal endures as it is cheap, reliable, and available 24/7 – it is also a toxic pollutant and threat to our global stability through greenhouse gas emissions. Coal is a pillar of electricity security; it needs to be replaced urgently. Electricity demand continues to grow from demand from various sectors, including clean energy manufacturing, mobility and heating, and new industries such as AI and data centres. Meanwhile, our planet’s population increases and continues to heat beyond pre-industrial levels. CCUS, while useful at capturing the emissions at source, also increases the overall coal consumption, to cover energy losses associated with the process and capture.
Repowering of coal plants decreases coal consumption, as the heat source for the steam is provided by an alternative technology, instead of coal. Advanced nuclear energy, for example, emits 12g/kWh CO2 compared to 820 g/kWh CO2 of a coal-fired power plant. One 1000 MWe coal power plant consumes 9,000,000 kg of coal a day. One 1000 MWe nuclear power plant consumes about 3 kg of uranium a day. We have the technological capabilities and experience to generate vast amounts of electricity cleanly, without GHG emissions. This can be achieved quickly and cost efficiently by reusing the pre-existing infrastructure of a coal plant, which is already connected up to the electrical grid.
While there is positive news in the report that coal consumption is plateauing over the next three years, and renewables are massively increasing, the decline of coal must happen faster.
Source: IEA – Coal 2024 – Analysis and Forecast to 2027
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